Before you get ready to argue with me, this isn't about politics and what caused the issue. Sorry, but as I always say, THAT DOESN'T MATTER. As people into preparedness, we have to decide what it can teach, what it shows us, and how we can prepare. Just like the events in KwaZulu Natal last year.
While what happened that started the protests isn't important, let's dispel some myths being presented in the media, because they are relevant. As hard as it may be to believe, the media sometimes lies. First, they are making odd and easily disproven statements that Kazakhs are upset over "equity". That's just a silly comment because Kazakhs make up almost 70% of the population and are therefore the majority. They also claim that Kazakhs are protesting that they are "being ravaged by COVID"....that's not true, they are protesting AGAINST restrictions. Finally, they make this ridiculous claim that Kazakhstan is a poor, backwards country. That photo above shows Almaty, a modern city no different than any in America, Russia, or Europe. In fact, Kazakhstan is the richest country in Central Asia.
Don't believe the hype. They are saying these things to try and tie them to the American left wing to garner support for the rebels, while also trying to embolden the American left. Boy, is that part working! Look at the comments below any video out of Kazakhstan, and you'll see them cheering on the destruction.
The first lesson to learn is that this situation completely bears out my 72-hour theory. On the morning of the 3rd, Kazakhstan was a peaceful modern nation, with full utilities, internet, cell phone providers, the whole deal. By the end of the 6th, 72 hours later, the government had resigned, the internet was shut down, utilities were intermittent, law and order was non-existent, large parts of every major city were burning, there was open warfare, and soldiers were pouring into the country from Russia, Armenia, and Belarus.
By the 7th, pitched urban warfare was on-going in Almaty, her largest city, there were videos of morgues full of bodies, her President may have fled, and foreign troops were given authority basically to shoot anyone on the streets. Videos are still emerging of massive numbers of foreign troops pouring into the nation.
Let's dispel another myth, before we move on. People are saying, yeah, but it's a small country. Kazakhstan is 60% larger than Alaska and roughly one-third the size of the US, so it's a BIG country.
Another lesson is that for you, a prepared citizen, if there is fighting between the government and protestors, you aren't out of the woods. While it's barely getting any coverage, there is WIDESPREAD looting. In one video, a group of rioters armed with long guns attempted to force their way into a high-rise building, ostensibly to rob the occupants. High-security doors and alert residents defeated them. You need to have a security plan, since the police were too busy fighting for their lives or surrendering to assist. The Civil Defense Manual by Jack Lawson discusses setting up a "Neighborhood Protection Plan", including instructions for defending a High Rise, as does Clay Martin's Concrete Jungle (links to both below)
You need to consider how you will defend your location now, because if a nationwide insurrection (yes, this one is ACTUALLY an insurrection) kicks off, you won't have time. When the riots started, law and order broke down completely in 48 hours, complete with police and soldiers surrendering to the insurgents. The next 24 hours saw the first government counterstrike (after the troops were re-assured by promises of support from Russia and the CSTO) that completed the breakdown. Start planning NOW.
The next lesson is another one I harp on, but it is communications. The government immediately shut down all access to the internet. You might be thinking, yeah, but this is the United States. Remember, first and foremost, just like our highway system, the internet was created to facilitate MILITARY communications. Yes, the US Government can take it offline if they deem it "a national security issue". We already see them throttling or overloading systems near protests now, to limit communications.
Develop a plan with your loved ones and like-minded preparedness group to be able to communicate somehow. Radio is a good medium for this, and they can't just shut down radio propagation. I won't go into detail, lest I summon a sad Ham.
Have a plan to receive information from the outside world. Having a link outside your borders will help you know what is going on. I imagine that the first notice most Kazakhs got that outside forces were present was when a Belarusian BMP blocked off their street. Think about the risk there....you don't know what's happening because the TV stations and radio stations are shut down, there is no internet, and suddenly, foreign troops are going door to door looking for "terrorists". Buy some type of SSB-capable shortwave or amateur receiver that will allow you to monitor news broadcasts from far away.
Some of the very first video I saw was a guy driving the streets of Almaty at night. There were both police and rioter checkpoints. You want nothing to do with either. There is another video of a vehicle stopped by police at a checkpoint, but the vehicle is all shot up and one of the occupants is dead in the street with an apparent head wound. As much as you want to get out and see what is happening, vehicles are not the way to do that. Vehicles must stay on the road, and there will be checkpoints from both sides. As we saw in the CHAZ last year, even anti-police brutality activists will use police brutality on you if you try to run the checkpoint, with deadly results.
Avoid checkpoints of any type if at all possible. The best way to avoid them is to not be out on the streets. As I point out in my writings, your first responsibility is survival and defending your supplies. Let the two warring sides fight it out while you bunker in, unless forced to move. Curiosity can indeed kill the cat.
I saw several videos shot from people's windows of the rioters attacking, and appearing to kill police, and many videos of police shooting or attacking civilians. While it's great for social media credit, you are putting yourself at risk. If someone sees you filming, and now knows that you have evidence of either murder of a police officer or a war crime (if the military or police do the killing), what do you think is going to happen next?
There are multiple reports of food and fuel being unavailable. Now, not to beat a dead horse, but you need to have at least a 14-day supply of food, and all your vehicles need to be full. Those are common issues that anyone in preparedness needs to be on top of.
Also consider the time of year. We are currently entering the coldest 8 weeks of the year in the Northern Hemisphere. You need to have a plan for warmth. You also need to understand that your body needs more calories when it is colder out.
Now the situation in Kazakhstan is entering a dangerous phase, the restoration of authority phase, and there are warnings that apply that we should consider here. First, troops and police have been given extremely liberal ROE's and therefore are FAR MORE LIKELY to shoot you. All the cool-guy gray man tactics in the world aren't going to help.
Next, understand that anytime a military force "restores order" from this level, it will involve door-to-door searches and weapon seizures. Don't come at me with "muh 2nd and 4th amendments, bruh" or "this is America". Under the orders of known racist Gen Honore, the United States Army and the Louisiana National Guard, assisted by the NOPD and Louisiana State Police went door-to-door searching houses and seizing guns under an emergency declaration after Hurricane Katrina, and he stated, "As long as I am in charge, only my troops and the police will be armed."
You will have a hard choice. You could comply, and be left defenseless when the mobs return, because the military is there to defend GOVERNMENT AUTHORITY, not your house. You could resist, and run the risks associated with that, or you can move.
In a crisis, movement is life. I know, many of you plan to bug in, but I would like to point out that you can only bug in until you have to bug out. If you've got a 10-year supply of food, but let the government take your guns, "for everyone's safety", how long do you think you'll keep that food?
You could build secret compartments and try to hide your guns before you get searched, but then they aren't available for defensive use. You also have to consider what it will look like to searchers if they find a gun and ammunition hidden between the walls.
Having some type of pre-planned egress from the city is a better way. Kazakhstan (and the United States) is a big place. The military could realistically only control the cities, just like here in America, and maybe run a few highway checkpoints. The key is having a plan to exfiltrate areas under government or rebel control, to an area where you can remain self-determining.
This is important, because any rebel faction that overthrows the government is going to switch gears so fast it will make your head spin. Those "freedom and equality" people who are so against state power, once they seize control, will begin wielding state power to disarm anyone who isn't them immediately. Think about it, they just learned that armed people can overthrow the government if they really try and they are now the government.
It's best to time any exfiltration between 3 am and 6 am, when human senses and activity are at their lowest ebb. Do a map study and find at least 4 routes (PACE planning) out of the area. Consider unconventional means like rivers, streams, and sewer lines or power rights-of-way to avoid detection. Again, do this study now.
Now that we've covered the lessons, let's talk a LITTLE about what sparked it and what the potential is here. The Kazakh government announced that they were removing price controls on liquified petroleum gas (LPG). Price controls are a socialist thing, that artificially lowers prices to levels where businesses lose money. The price immediately shot up locally, causing street protests that quickly turned violent. It's fair to say that inflation in fuel prices caused this crisis. What's your average fuel cost looking like lately? We are on a trajectory for inflation-caused fuel and food riots this spring.
It is worth noting that the National Endowment for Democracy (likely a CIA front) and the Open Societies Foundation (George Soros) have been pouring money into Kazakhstan to foster anti-government sentiment and protests. While the protests grew out of soaring prices, the demands from the magically appearing out of nowhere opposition leadership include cutting all ties with Russia, fueling beliefs that NATO or the US played a role in this.
But what does this mean for us? It means that Vladimir Putin is highly likely to see this as yet another attempt by NATO to overthrow a government that both borders Russia and is friendly to Russia and as a NATO expansion right up to his border. Russia, and the greater CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization), will view this as an existential threat, just as they do with Ukraine and Georgia.
While some feel that this crisis reduces the tensions by drawing troops away from Ukraine, the fact is that very few of the 3,000 troops that Russia deployed to Kazakhstan came from the Ukraine forces. Even if they all did, it still leaves over 175,000 troops on Ukraine's border. The risk of a wider war is actually GREATER than it was a week ago.
Recent imagery shows troops from Russia's Far East being diverted to Kazakhstan, and even more logistics troops moving into advanced positions near the Ukrainian border.
Make some plans, stay in touch with your allies and family, and don't get caught by surprise. Our first indication of Russian action in Ukraine may very be a hack targeting our electrical grid or fomenting large civil disturbances.
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